But if youd told me four years ago when his career looked absolutely left for dead that I would even half-heartedly entertain the notion, I would have doubted that even more. Gibson, who died last October, finished with 3,117. Rile people up.. Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina played their final game in the majors, a disappointing 2-0 loss to eliminate them from the Wild Card round. Justin Verlander has pulled off one of the rare accomplishments for a pitcher winning a league MVP award. He just turned 30 on August 7, and hes already fifth in JAWS and third in peak among center fielders, but this has been largely a lost year due to a right calf strain thats already required the longest recovery time in at least six years. When the Washington Nationals took Stephen Strasburg first overall in the 2009 draft, he was one of the most hyped prospects in the games history. He was the first pitcher aged 39 or older since Mike Mussina in 2008 to throw at least 200 innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better. He threw two no-hitters in the same season and tied the major league record with 20 strikeouts in a nine-inning game. Adam Wainwrights hybrid JAWS of 41.6 is a fair amount behind that of Dwight Gooden, and closing a 6.4 point gap is going to be a tall order. Perhaps a new metric will be devised that paints Wainwright in an extraordinary new lightI cant really imagine what said metric would be, but Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day on which meaningful baseball games werent even played, so I am not going to dismiss the possibility hastily. Adam Wainwright was born on the 30th of August, 1981. Still, Hernandez has quite a resume over the last decade hes been named to six All-Star teams, won 156 games for a perennially-losing franchise that hasnt sniffed the postseason, and hes won a Cy Young award to go with multiple ERA titles. Throughout his career, Wainwright has won a World Series and has been selected to the All-Star game three times. NeverSober1900. Greinke has won an ERA title in each league. It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. Bumgarner has thrown 36 career innings in the World Series and allowed one earned run. Hes also climbed from 12th to ninth in saves (372) and should easily move past Joe Nathan (377) and Dennis Eckersley (390) within the next year. And if the Sox do pick up his option, he is by no means a lock to pass Eckersley in saves next year if Hendriks gets most of the chances. But, while neither was young, per se, by baseball standards (it was deGroms age-30 season and Scherzers age-33), there is a big leap to get to Adam Wainwrights age-40 season which looms ahead. This is a question that has been frequently raised throughout the season as the Cardinals' 'Big Three' (Pujols, Wainwright, Molina) were constantly praised by St. Louis fans. Please logout and login again. Assuming he pitches in 2022, a year in which I am assuming Major League Baseball will indeed be played, which he has already announced will be his last, Wainwrights first round of Hall of Fame votes would not even be revealed until 2028. A two-homer, two-walk game on Wednesday added half a win to whats now his seventh-best season (4.5 WAR); with a big finish, he can approach the peak standard (42.7 WAR). By Hybrid JAWS, Adam Wainwright is, currently, the 118th greatest starting pitcher in Major League Baseball history. Actually, it's two starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright. The 40-year . Hes got three seasons of 3.0 WAR or less as part of his peak score and has a good shot at continuing his big strides in the next few years. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright's Hall of Fame chances could be dampened by circumstances out of his control. Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C. Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis. Laurie Skrivan, St, Louis Post-Dispatch Here's a look at some other top Cardinals not in the Hall of Fame. Despite dealing with shoulder soreness and some rough stretches, Greinke the active leader in JAWS has pitched an AL-high 159.2 innings, though he will probably get overtaken after landing on the COVID-19 IL on Tuesday. Adam Wainwright Hall of Fame. Adam Wainwright (44.0 career | 35.5 Peak | 39.8 JAWS, +2.1 JAWS). After doing some [strength] assessments, its something he can solve. On Saturday, June 11, 25,000 fans, ages 16 and older, will take home one of their replica . He's a hell of a pitcher and even better human being. What would Adam Wainwright need to do in 2022 to deserve Hall of Fame induction? The greatest lineups ever? But what is particularly interesting to examine with regards to Wainwright is that if Wainwright were elected, he would not even be close to the worst starting pitcher in Cooperstown. But at least it wont be historically egregious. 156-111, 3.18 ERA, 2,286 strikeouts, 126 adjusted ERA. The Cardinals are calm. Wainwright had won nine of 10 decisions coming in. It just was not the type of career that was worthy of the Hall of Fame. What injury? Its an impressive resume, and one that has him as a top-10 starting pitcher of the last decade, but its just not enough for Cooperstown. When Wainwright has pitched, hes been traditionally one of the better pitchers in the league, having won 20 games twice, 19 games on two other occasions, and led the league twice. His cutter was next, dropping from his 2022 average of 84.3 mph to 80.8 mph, and his curveball decreased from 72.9 mph to 70.2 mph.. It hasnt moved him very far in the JAWS rankings, but hes nonetheless seventh among active pitchers behind Greinke, the injured Justin Verlander (60.8), Kershaw, Scherzer, and two other pitchers whove effectively taken zeroes in 2020 and 21, Cole Hamels (48.4) and Flix Hernndez (44.3). Its my belief that this as-yet-unnamed metric which Im hoping to formalize in time for the upcoming election cycle does a better job of emphasizing closers rather than starters-turned-relievers who racked up significant WAR in the rotations before making the move to roles more fireman-like than closer-like; it bumps the likes of Tom Gordon, Ellis Kinder, Bobby Shantz, and Kerry Wood down several pegs. Yadier Molina, though certainly less overwhelming of a candidate than Pujols, is probably going to make it inparticularly with the modern embrace of pitch framing, Molinas defensive reputation has only improved, and his high longevity and peak scores by FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (which, unlike Baseball Reference, incorporates framing), are well within the normal catcher standards for Cooperstown, even if the rank-and-file voter bestows his candidacy with fewer goat emojis and general fawning than St. Louis does. Information from The Associated Press was used in this report. One Wainwright is a lot closer to establishing than perhaps even he realizes. Will this happen? Sometimes a little spring-training soreness is nothing more than a little spring-training soreness. Your existing password has not been changed. Its not like hes been injury-prone; Price has led the league in games started three times and innings pitched twice. You may have created an account with another Rogers Media account that can be used to sign in here. Still, hes won 230 games, led the league in wins twice, and won a Cy Young award and a World Series ring. Thats an average of 174 innings per year. Sorry we could not verify that email address. Are there baseball seasons good enough to get Adam Wainwright past Dwight Gooden? All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball Net and Spotrac. Its Wainwrights final MLB season before retirement, and (mostly) anything goes. Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS-AM. Chris Sale keeps getting better with age, and with the way hes ben mowing down hitters in a 2017 free agent year, hes going to earn a lucrative $200 million deal in the offseason. Let's take a look at Flaherty. However, the future Cardinals Hall of Famer is coming off a 2022 season in which he lost velocity, suffered a decline in swing-and-miss stuff and faded to a 17.8 percent strikeout rate. I think Hall of Fame credentials might change a bit, Wainwright said. Terms of Service. He has similar numbers (albeit slightly worse) than Roy Halladay. Wins may not matter as much these days, but his 195 wins would make him just the seventh player to be inducted as a starting pitcher with fewer than 200 victories. Enter your email below and we'll send you another email. 1st stage: All good. Gibson got his 2,000th strikeout when Pittsburgh's Roberto Clemente was called out on July 13, 1969. Adam Wainwright's age is 41. All advice, including picks and predictions, is based on individual commentators opinions and not that of Minute Media or its related brands. (And hes been getting his work in, at least for the most part.) His monitor score is only an 87. He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011. Even having covered the progress of 17 mid- and late-career players in these two installments, there are a handful who have posted JAWS gains that would fit on the leaderboards and about whom people have questions regarding their Hall progress. By what Ill provisionally call R(eliever)-JAWS, hes climbed from 22nd all-time to 15th, which is still well below the standard for the eight enshrined relievers (29.7). It is not as though a 6.4 WAR season alone would do the trickwhile this would put Wainwright over 50 bWAR and at 56.4 fWAR (assuming he hit 6.4 on both metrics), the impact on Wainwrights peak would be much smaller, since he was reasonably good in his seventh best season under both metrics (3.0 bWAR, 3.9 fWAR). Nelson Cruz, right field (42.2 career | 30.1 Peak | 36.1 JAWS, +1.3 JAWS). A similarly impressive 2022 and perhaps 2023, though upon signing a one-year extension with the Cardinals last week, Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season added to his 2017-14 peak would nudge him ever closer to a Cooperstown-worthy body of work and at the least underline the kind of company hes already keeping. Still, his 2.60 ERA is his lowest since 2017, and his strikeout rate is a solid 29.8%. The bad news is that hell finish his age-35 season still short of 1,200 hits (hes at 1,156), meaning that hed have to average at least 160 a total he hasnt reached since 2016 through his age-40 season just to reach the all-important 2,000. Drew move to Atlanta. Flahertys exhibition-season debut was supposed to happen Saturday, but now the assignment has been switched to Sunday. Well have to wait and see. Arizona Diamondbacks. Now, Adam Wainwright at any age, while once one of the best pitchers in the sport, never put a season quite that good. Outside of Clayton Kershaw, he may be the most dominant pitcher in the game right now; FanGraphs credits Scherzer with more WAR than any non-Kershaw pitcher (25.9) since 2013. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe and Mastodon @jay_jaffe. Wainos going to do that whether hes here or not, and thats a trust thing that Im not concerned with.. All WAR (and WPA) figures here refer to the Baseball Reference version, unless otherwise indicated. Heres a report on Wainwrights Thursday start against the Astros from The Athletics Katie Woo: The velocity on all five of the pitches in his mix averaged between 3-4 mph slower than their average readings in 2022. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. What a different story we could be telling about 'Waino' had he stayed in Atlanta. Adam Wainwright (44.0 career | 35.5 Peak | 39.8 JAWS, +2.1 JAWS). Perhaps (I would argue this is more likely) a new narrative arc would emergeWainwright, say, grits through physical pain to guide the Cardinals to the 2022 World Series and enters a level of folklore which allows voters to look optimistically upon his borderline statistical case (see: Ortiz, David). The hot air balloon . ago. For now, all eyes are on Flaherty and Wainwright. While wins arent everything, Ive chosen to list them chronologically by career win total as a benchmark of evaluation. After posting a 3.84 expected ERA in 2022, that metric jumped to 4.53 last season. Central Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto headlines the list of players in the National League West who are on track to have a chance to make it into baseball's Hall of Fame. Focusing on what hes better at: Scherzer is just 19 strikeouts away from 3,000 and should reach the milestone this month, surpassing the likes of Juan Marichal, Roy Halladay, and Bob Feller on the JAWS leaderboard. Adam Wainwright Stats. Strasburgs 2.86 FIP suggests hes outperformed his 3.18 ERA, and his strikeout rate has been stellar. Write some stories about it! Wainwright said. Hey, at least the Cardinals added a proven, quality big-league starting pitcher this past offseason. A frequently cited statistic for determining Hall worthiness is the average production of a Hall of Famer at that position, though my preferred approach is to consider a players worthiness not according to the average at a position among a subset of players who are sometimes transcendent and sometimes unworthy, but rather to ask, Is this guy the (fill in ordinal number of Hall of Famers at position) best (fill in position) ever? By Hybrid JAWS, Yadier Molina is the 13th greatest catcher of all-time (two of the ones ahead of him, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer, are not yet Hall-eligible), and there are sixteen catchers in the Hall of Fame. The two-time NL Cy Young winner began his season by reeling off one of the most amazing runs of any pitcher in recent memory, posting an 0.50 ERA and 0.87 FIP through his first 12 starts. The Cardinals trailed 5-0 on a pair of home runs by Tyrone Taylor, but St. Louis rallied to win its 12th straight, 8-5. Or follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link. Dont hold your breath. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright may have ended a solid career. I sincerely hope Flaherty is fine and that theres no reason for concern. Yadier Molina, catcher (58.1 career fWAR (incl. He has a $217 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, and to make the Hall of Fame, he may need another Cy Young award and a dominant performance in a World Series championship. This may not seem particularly grandiose, and probably not even close to Cooperstown worthiness, but it should be noted that with sixty-five elected, starting pitcher is far and away the most commonly enshrined position in the Hall (it has also, pre-bullpen expansion, been the most common position, so this shouldnt be too surprising). The veteran right-hander is the last remaining . But I just want to know how far back I would have to dig to find an age-40 season in which a pitcher was good enough to get Adam Wainwright to this level of Hall of Fame worthiness. More From This Game. Can Adam Wainwright join St. Louis Cardinals teammates in Hall of Fame? As if on schedule, we have our first spring-training round of Is Anything Wrong? with the pitcher. Since then, hes made the All-Star team every year, led the league in wins on three occasions, and won a Cy Young award in each league. Decade-plus Eagles writer. Covering the latest and most controversial news around the world of sports, heavily centered on the Philadelphia Eagles and National Football League. Even though three different physical problems were cited to explain Wainwrights plummeting velocity and ineffective pitching? He was hit hard four balls hit off him registered exit velocities higher than 104 mph, including a 112.1 mph solo moonshot of a homer off the bat of Jos Abreu. He posted a 195-117 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.216 WHiP, striking out 2147 batters with 695 walks in his 2567.1 innings. After suffering a setback around the trade deadline, he only returned to throwing on August 25; the Mets are holding out hope that the 33-year-old righty can rejoin them by mid-September. Velocity? . But until we see Jack pitching in games against opposing hitters in game conditions down there in Florida and recovering on time to do it again, and again, and again Ill have to take the wait-and-see approach. But over the last three seasons, Jack has pitched only 154 innings. So basically what Im saying is that if Adam Wainwright has a once-every-seventy-five-years season, he should probably make it into Cooperstown. According to tracking done by Baseball Reference he faced mostly Double A hitters. Wainwright, however, has a much more finite timetablehe has announced that he is retiring. Saturday marked the end of an era for the St. Louis Cardinals. The good news is that Sale is missing bats and taking names, offering hope that the 32-year-old lefty can resume a quest for Cooperstown that was beginning to come into focus before he was injured. 2/4/18 Super Bowl champs. PITTSBURGH, PA - AUGUST 28: Adam Wainwright #50 of, the St. Louis Cardinals applauds after a defensive play by Nolan Arenado #28 in the first inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on August 28, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. For relievers, Im using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which Ive examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. When he calls it a career, Wainwright won't be a serious contender for baseball's Hall of Fame, unlike Molina. The best-of-three series would not go in the Cardinals' favor, falling 2-0 to the eventual World Series participant. Your login session has expired. The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Hes never pitched for a World Series champion, and his career postseason statistics wont help him hes 2-8 with a 5.54 ERA, and hes gotten completely shelled on multiple occasions. But he didnt become a full-time starter until his age-24 season, and hes now pitched for a quarter of the American League teams. Hes produced 5.0 WAR with his pitching but -0.6 WAR with his hitting with a remarkable .000/.000/.000 line taking this no-hitter thing a bit too literally through 50 PA; on Wednesday night, he surpassed Wei-Yin Chens record for season-opening futility, set in 2016. The two were teammates from 2005-07, and Rolen was out at third base when Wainwright recorded the final out of the 2006 World Series for the St. Louis Cardinals.. While it seems impossible to envision it now, Wainwright was not always a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. 55 votes, 66 comments. Albert Pujols is, barring something unforseen, going to easily sail into the National Baseball Hall of FameI always feel the need to add a caveat since uncodified steroid accusations have already kept one of the few modern hitters unreservedly superior to Pujols out of the Hall of Fame, though seeing David Ortiz make it does give me hope that Albert Pujols being a nice guy that everyone in baseball media seems to like would provide sufficient cushion to whatever random conjecture somebody wants to throw out into the discourse. While Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina are already committed to retirement, what becomes of star pitcher Adam Wainwright remains a question for St. Louis fans. For a five-year span from 2007-2011, CC Sabathia was regarded as one of the elite pitchers in the game, and he took three different teams to the postseason, winning a ring with the 2009 Yankees. Maybe he has it in him to stick around for another 20 wins to get to 200, but he might not even crack the top 100 in JAWS while doing so. Clayton Kershaw is this generations Sandy Koufax; he could retire right now and hed make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Sure there are. Likewise, his 42.4 bWAR is lower than the likes of Javier Vazquez, Al Leiter, and Frank Viola. (approx 1 - 2 per week). During the 2022 regular season, 'Waino' finished with a record of 11-12 and 3.71 ERA in 191.2 innings, while also racking up 143 strikeouts. He leads MLB in complete games this season at the age of 40, and is MLB's active leader in complete games with 27. Hernandez also holds the distinction of having been the last MLB pitcher to throw a perfect game (2012). After the divorce, his mother, Nancy, became a real estate agent and raised the boys on her own. Adam Wainwright in 2021 His lifetime ERA is 3.35 and has dropped nearly a tenth of a point over the last two seasons. All rights reserved. Todays pitcher will make it more for efficiency. While I dont think the statistical mistake that was inducting Rick Ferrell means that we should induct Mickey Tettleton, in my perfect world we would have sixteen Hall of Famers at the catcher position, though the ones who are in would be different (for instance, among the currently eligible, Gene Tenace would be there), and we would go from there. But is 40-year-old Adam Wainwright starting for the visiting Cardinals against the Dodgers in the winner-take-all tilt also on his way to joining Scherzer in the Hall of Fame? Your email address will not be published. March 2, 2023 | 00:00:10. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. I suppose well get an update after Wainwright returns to camp after competing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Greinke was dominant for the 2009 Kansas City Royals, winning the league ERA crown (2.16) and leading the AL in WHIP (1.073), and even better for the 2015 Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a ridiculous 1.66 ERA and at one point throwing 43.2 consecutive scoreless innings over six starts. Sales unconventional windup seems to leave open the idea of Tommy John surgery or at least a serious injury, but he has averaged 30 starts per season since entering the rotation in 12. Or could it be that a lot of this is happening because Wainwright is 41 years old and headed to his 42nd birthday on Aug. 30? He went 17-7 with 174 strikeouts and a 3.05 ERA in 32 starts spanning 206 1/3 innings the third-highest total in the majors. On one hand, its spring training and a lot of pitchers get pounded early in exhibition games as they prepare for the run-up to the regular season. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright joins Scott Braun, Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and AJ Pierzynski to talk about his final season and the legacy he's. JAWS and peak (WAR7) gains are the major drivers of this, but positional standards, traditional milestones, and ordinal rankings are considerations as well. Im skeptical only because of the history of how the Cardinals do this when a pitcher doesnt pitch, or takes a delay before his next assignment. Given the way hes been pitching as of late, thats certainly not farfetched. Adam Wainwright on Baseball Reference.. Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? Adam Wainwright biography. I highly doubt it. His contract (seven years, $175 million) ensures he will pitch in Seattle at least through 2019, but his velocity numbers and declining ERA suggest his career may be on the downside. Hes undergone Tommy John surgery, and his career total of 76 wins is underwhelming. The slugger hit .274 with 32 homers and 97 RBIs in 160 games last year. Jim Bowden (The Athletic) was at Cardinal camp earlier this week and asked president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about Flahertys status. Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Flipboard (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window). Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; hes going to be 36 in a few months and hes logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American.

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